The weather forecast for the next few days suggest little cloud (though the weather forecasts at the moment are less accurate!) providing clearer skies. It is these particles that will eventually reach the Earth and potentially 'rain-down' into the upper atmosphere treating everyone to a show. A coronal mass ejection is an emission of plasma from the sun. This burst of energy (radiation) occurs across all wavelengths. A solar flare is a release of energy on the sun due to a rapid reconfiguration of the magnetic field near sunspots. There is a potential for increased activity tonight and for the next couple of days due to an inbound coronal mass ejection that accompanied a solar flare. Weather conditions, as of the Friday, are favourable, with clear skies forecast.
This increases the chances of seeing Aurora for Saturday, Sunday and possibly Monday. A coronal mass ejection that occurred on Thursday (Oct 28, 2021) is heading Earthward and should arrive at some time on Saturday. Potentially good viewing for Halloween 2021. The yellow trace shows the current solar wind speed and when this rapidly increases well above 400 km/s then the CME is 15 minutes away! You can see the data here: ACE SWEPAM DATA. The ACE satellite sits 1.4M km sunward from Earth, measuring the solar wind speed. A coronal mass ejection (CME-the emission from the sun that causes Aurora) typically has a speed of 1000-2000 km/s. The solar wind (particles that constantly stream outward from the sun) has a typical speed of 400 km/s.
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